Unfortunately Hereford was lost to the weather yesterday leaving Alan just the one bet at Kempton, where Embers Glow at [4.0] made it four winners from his last seven selections. For the final time this week he has two more from Fakenham and Chelmsford…
Fifty Shades can show his class today
Just the six line up for this chase and it looks like a pretty weak line up to be honest, so I will take a chance that Christian Williams has been able to get Fifty Shades to the course on a going day. The six-year-old grey was disappointing in his last two starts, however to be fair they were in far more competitive races than this and he was placed in a Class 3 race at Cheltenham off today’s mark in October. He has won here before and has the services of Philip Donovan on board claiming a very handy 7lbs off his back, is taking a drop in class, and if he can rediscover anything close to that Cheltenham form then that will be enough to see him home ahead of these.
The likely danger is the current favourite and bottom weight Stonebrigg Legend who ran well to be second here recently and would probably have won that day but for two jumping errors she made during the race. She had the Neil King runner Vaxalco behind her that day and I don’t see any reason why those places would be altered in this contest. The winner that day (Sideways) has since come out and won so that may not have been a bad race, but if Fifty Shades turns up and runs close to what she is capable of then she is better than these.
Adam Kirby can steer Alsvinder to victory
Simon Crisford‘s yard are in good form at present and they have the market principle here in the shape of How Far, he is making his long awaited return today after a 178 day break, he was last seen winning well at Lingfield but that was in July. He is certainly less exposed than most of this line up and therefore open to even more improvement and a worthy favourite, but at the odds I just feel he could be in trouble if he isn’t race fit.
One that is certainly race fit is the David O’Meara trained Alsvinder. He was also last seen winning at Lingfield but that was just 12 days ago and just a 2lb rise in the weights for that success looks acceptable.
This son of Footstepsinthesand’s latest run was as good as we have seen from him to date and he has been given a good draw, coming out of stall two. My favourite all weather jockey is in the plate, Adam Kirby, and I think he has the beating of the favourite today, who may just need this run to get right.
2019 Overall: +1.00pts
This week so far…
Staked: 12 pts
Returned: 22 pts
2018 P&L +82.29pts
2017 P&L +53.30pts
2016 P&L +15.23pts