THE Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy discuss the chances in all nine races on the final day of the Sydney autumn carnival at Royal Randwick on Saturday.
|DUFF’S BEST||RAY’S BEST|
|Race 2, No.4 TEST THE WORLD||Race 6, No.3 OUTRAGEOUS|
|Race 5, No.5 MANICURE||Race 9, No.7 OSBORNE BULLS|
|BEST VALUE||BEST VALUE|
|Race 6, No.9 AKKADIAN||Race 1, No. 8 NEWTOWN IS COMING|
R1 (12pm): TAB HIGHWAY (1200m)
Thomas: The TAB Highways are back and this is a pretty open race. I’ve gone a little wide with Newtown Is Coming. He was sent out as favourite at Goulburn and, after racing on the speed, just tired late when sixth to Northern River. Newtown Is Coming is fitter for two runs from a spell, drops 5kg and is value at $17. Ori On Fire comes off a good fourth to Don’t Give A Damn in the Muswellbrook Wild Card and that is good form for this. Nic’s Vendetta and Northern River are chances.
Dufficy: Tricky race. I ended up leaning to Keymaster. He was off a bit of a break between runs when he wasn’t beaten far at Warwick Farm last start. City form is usually good for these TAB Highways and at his previous start he won by more than six lengths at Bathurst. Ori On Fire is the danger. The blinkers go on and he was good at Muswellbrook last start. Nic’s Vendetta is a consistent Highway performer and Count Cumani did a good job last preparation. He’s fitter for a first-up run and will run well provided the track stays dry.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Nic’s Vendetta $8-$6 ($250 @ $7.50, $1,000 e/w @ $6.50/$2.30), Ori On Fire $4.60-$3.60- $3.10 ($275 @ $4.60, $315 @ $4.20, $381 @ $3.60, $3,000 @ $3.30 averaged out)
RACE WATCH: DAVO’S TIPS FOR RANDWICK
TOP TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS
ALL AGED: HART IN RIGHT PLACE
CHAMPAGNE: HAWKES CAN’T FAULT CLASSY COLTS
R2 (12.35pm): APN OUTDOOR HCP (1200m)
Thomas: I like Test The World. She is trained up for this and I loved her recent trial behind Tango Rain at Rosehill. She has a good first-up record, drawn ideally and gets in well after the claim. In Times Of War ran well first-up, she will be fitter, is down in the weights but we know she finds it hard to win. Crafty Cop is an underrated sprinter and can run well fresh. Dissolute is in super touch and it is hard to knock winning form.
Dufficy: I’m with Test The World, too. She is so genuine, she’s had two trials to prepare for this, she maps beautifully from barrier one and gets the claim for an in-form apprentice — she gets a lot of ticks here. Anatola looks ready to run well. She has had two trial wins leading into this where she has been shaken up so they have left nothing in the tank to have her ready for this. A big query on Miss Wonderland with the change of stables. She did win first-up at Sandown last preparation and ran well in a recent trial. Crafty Cop has the quality to measure up to this race.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: King Darci $19-$15, Test The World $6.50-$6 ($250 e/w @ $6.50/$2.45, $500 @ $6 TWICE, $500 x $1,267 e/w @ $6/$2.30, $500 x $100 e/w @ $6/$2.30, $420 @ $6, $200 @ $6 MULTIPLE TIMES)
R3 (1.10pm): HALL MARK STAKES (1200m)
Thomas: Burning Passion didn’t have a lot of luck in the Star Kingdom Stakes last start when he got a little further back than anticipated from the inside barrier then ran into trouble in the straight. He is third-up here and ready to win. Give him another chance. Bolero King is in great form and ran a close third in the Star Kingdom. He is going so well this autumn. Dothraki is racing consistently at Group 3 level and although he doesn’t win often, he will be in the finish. Firsthand sprints well fresh and excels at this distance. He can win without surprising.
Dufficy: I want to be with Burning Passion as well. I want to give him another chance. I don’t think he has been suited by barrier one at his two runs back this campaign. He hasn’t been able to muster the early speed to take advantage of the gate in those races. I like the fact he is drawn wider as it gives him the chance to get into the race early and I feel you will see a different horse. The much-maligned Dothraki is racing well. He might not win often but he is well placed under the set weights and penalties conditions of this race. Firsthand has had a couple of Flemington jump-outs to prepare for this where he has looked pretty good. Best of the rest is Star Reflection.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Dothraki $2.80-$2.70
R4 (1.45pm): FRANK PACKER PLATE (2000m)
Thomas: The question here is do you go with the Derby horses coming back in distance or with those who are progressing through to the 2000m. I ended up going with the Derby form and Tangled. He was well and truly beaten by Levendi and Ace High but his third placing is his third Group 1 placing this season. He is bursting to win a good race and the blinkers go back on here. Astoria was going for the same run as Tangled in the Derby and when he missed out, he dropped out of contention. He deserves another chance. Dissolution is in great form but 2000m might test him. Godunov is a young stayer with ability.
Dufficy: This is a very interesting race and I want to go with those horses stepping up in distance rather than those coming out of the Derby. I have earmarked Dissolution here. He hasn’t done much wrong in three runs this preparation, I can see him riding the speed and if he runs 2000m, he will be tough to run down. Holy Snow is the danger. I like the fact he is coming up in distance, too. I concede his only wins have been at 1400m but he is fit, racing well and it is the right time to try him at this trip. Tangled with the blinkers back on sharpens him up and his Guineas and Derby efforts are great pointers for this race. I am wary of Temprado, who has been nurtured through the provincials and his 2000m win last start was authoritative.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Tangled $4.60-$5, Holy Snow $4.20-$3.50 ($625 @ $4.20, $333 @ $4, $225 @ $4, $500 @ $3.50), Higher Ground $8-$9- $7.50 ($500 x $1,500 e/w @ $9/$2.50, $2,000 @ $8), Temperado $8-$7.50
R5 (2.20pm): JHB CARR STAKES (1400m)
Thomas: I have a bit of time for Lisdoonvarna and Ridicule. I know they are jumping in grade but they are promising fillies in good form. Lisdoonvarna has won four of her six starts and I loved the way she attacked the line to win at Warwick Farm when resuming. She has a great winning attitude and at double-figure odds I think she is worth the gamble. Ridicule held off a promising horse in Dark Dream in heavy going at Kembla Grange and is also over the odds. I concede this does look the perfect race for Manicure. She has run well in both starts since resuming and has finally drawn a barrier. Moss Trip has been freshened since her competitive fifth at Group 1 level in the Surround Stakes and that is good form for this race.
Dufficy: I’m keen on Manicure. She has been improved by two runs back from a spell, she sets up perfectly here and is ready to produce her best. She should be in the finish. The danger is Moss Trip. She has had that freshen-up after going to another level when a close fifth in the Surround Stakes. Maybe she just needs some rain to boost her chances. Problem Solver hasn’t done too much wrong in her seven starts, where she hasn’t finished further back than second. So Far Sokool put a gap in them in the Bendigo Guineas and the timing is right third-up off that win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: So Far Sokool $6-$4 ($200 @ $6, $250 @ $5, $221 @ $4.80, $500 @ $4, $300 @ $4), Manicure $6-$5.50 ($200 @ $6, $2,000 @ $5.50, $800 @ $5.50, $200 @ $5.50), Moss Trip $8-$6 ($1,000 @ $8, $300 e/w @ $8/$2.70, $200 @ $6)
R6 (2.55pm): CHAMPAGNE STAKES (1600m)
Thomas: Outrageous had no luck in both Sires’ at Flemington and particularly Randwick last start when he ran third to El Dorado Dreaming. He was held up for a run for most of the straight but when clear he hit the line hard. I don’t think the 1600m will be an issue for Outrageous. There was no fluke about El Dorado Dreaming’s win in the Sires’. She stormed down the centre of the track to win narrowly and will run the 1600m right out. Irukandji controlled the race at Rosehill last start and appeals as a definite chance again. Encryption hit the line well to win the Black Opal and should be forgiven his Sires’ effort when nothing went right for him. Terrific race, Ronnie.
Dufficy: This is a good race. It is hard to read the Sires’ form as El Dorado Dreaming was an upset result and a few of her rivals didn’t get the chance to perform. I’ve gone for another upset here with Akkadian. He got knocked down in the Baillieu behind Irukandji when he was about to really run through the line. Outrageous is the danger. He may have been big odds in the Sires’ but looking at his effort, he probably should have won that race. Not A Single Cent had no luck in the Sires’, either. He is still raw but gives every indication he will run the 1600m right out. The forgotten horse might be Irukandji, who was tough from the front at Rosehill and will make his own luck again here. I’m going wide with Akkadian.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Outrageous $8-$6- $5 ($308 @ $7.50, $1,000 @ $6.50 TWICE, $2,500 @ $6, $2,000 @ $6, $432 e/w @ $6/$2.25), Not A Single Cent $5-$5.50 ($500 @ $5.50, $400 @ $5.50, $450 @ $5), Akkadian $15-$16- $15 ($1,000 e/w @ $15/$4.20), El Dorado Dreaming $9-$10- $9-$9.50 ($300 x $1,00 e/w @ $10/$3.20, $200 e/w @ $10/$3.20, $300 x $200 e/w $9/$2.90), Seabrook $4.60-$5.50
R7 (3.35pm): ALL AGED STAKES (1400m)
Thomas: Top-class field for the final Group 1 race in Sydney this season. Trapeze Artist was outstanding running down Redzel in the TJ Smith Stakes and is a deserved favourite. He has never put back-to-back wins together during his career or won as favourite, but this is his chance. He is the one they have to beat. I was close to tipping Le Romain. He’s a proven big-race performer, up to his right trip here and has his hoof on the till after his eye-catching fourth to Trapeze Artist last start. Showtime ran third in the Futurity Stakes after leading earlier this campaign and he might end up in front controlling tempo. He ran well in the Arrowfield Sprint last week. Hartnell has been effective at 1400m when fresh.
Dufficy: The more I look at this race, the more I’m excited about it. I want to go with Hartnell. When you first look at this race, you think it will be too short for Hartnell. But his last two wins have been at 1400m and when he is trained to sprint well, he does sprint well. I think his class will nearly get him home. Tom Melbourne is the danger. The inside draw is perfect for him after a fantastic effort in the Doncaster, when he raced wide and without cover. No knock on Trapeze Artist, but his two big career wins have been in high-pressure races and this may not be run to suit. I think they will have to roll forward here, where I feel he is better sitting off a hot speed. This is a different situation for him. Brave Smash is a Group 1 winner at 1400m and gets another chance.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Le Romain $7-$8.50, Brave Smash $7-$8.50-$6.50 ($1,000 @ $8.50, $2,000 @ $6.50), Tom Melbourne $11-$12-$10 ($1,500 @ $12, $400 @ $12, $2,000e/w @ $11/$3), Trapeze Artist $2.60-$2.20-$2.25 ($1,500 @ $2.60, $650 @ $2.60, $500 @ $2.60, $1,000 @ $2.40, $1,500 @ $2.30, $2,000 @ $2.25, $1,000 @ $2.20, $200 @ $2.20)
R8 (4.15pm): JRA PLATE (2000m)
Thomas: I’ve come back to Arbeitsam. He is going great coming off a tough win in the Neville Sellwood Stakes then an outstanding third in the Doncaster Mile, albeit with a light weight. He has to carry 58kg but he is fit and racing well. Interlocuter gets a dry track and 2000m here, which should ensure he is competitive. Maurus ran a blinder second-up behind Arbeitsam and if he bounces off that, he will be right in the mix. Almost Court tried hard behind Arbeitsam at Rosehill and is a good each-way chance.
Dufficy: This is a good race. I’m with Interlocuter. He didn’t have a lot of luck second-up but the timing is right here, out to 2000m and he will get the cosy run from his inside barrier. Cool Chap is the danger. He will appreciate getting out to this trip and his Doncaster Mile effort was good. Arbeitsam has to go in after his Doncaster effort. He is creeping up in the weights now but he did prove himself at 2000m two starts back. A good roughie is Montauk, who saves his best form for Randwick and there was nothing wrong with his first-up run.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Arbeitsam $4.60-$4.20 ($500 @ $4.80 TWICE, $400 @ $4.40), Almost Court $15-$16- $15 ($650 @ $16, $200 e/w @ $15/$4.30, $500 e/w @ $14/$4.10, $200 e/w @ $14/$4), Rising Red $26-$19
R9 (4.55pm): NATHAN’S FAMOUS HOTDOGS HCP (1400m)
Thomas: Bet of the day here is Osborne Bulls. He’s been good to me this autumn, winning the last race of the day twice, including his brilliant effort over 1400m at Rosehill last start. He’s won six from eight, probably should be unbeaten and is charging through his grades. Special Missile is fitter for two runs back from a spell and he was good when third to Osborne Bulls last start. Savapinski is a quality mare resuming. She will probably find this a touch short but she can sprint well fresh. Shiraz was super first-up at Newcastle and had excuses last start.
Dufficy: Osborne Bulls has been the punter’s pal in the last race a few times but he is at short odds here. I’m going the other way with Special Missile. He has taken two runs to come right and will present perfectly back on his home track. He is hard to beat at nice odds. Harper’s Choice could be the danger. I was really taken with his barrier trial and although he hasn’t won at less than 1500m, he will be charging home. No knock on Osborne Bulls, he keeps winning and is a good horse. Savapinski came of age in the spring winning the Matriarch Stakes and is capable of sprinting well fresh.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Osborne Bulls $2.50-$2.40- $2.30 ($400 @ $2.50, $1,000 @ $2.40, $840 @ $2.40, $500 @ $2.30 TWICE, $300 @ $2.30), Special Missile $11-$8.50