THE Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy dissect the Silver Slipper meeting at Rosehill Gardens and the group 1 races at Caulfield.
|DUFF’S BEST||RAY’S BEST|
|Race 2, No.1 SHOW A STAR||Race 1, No.4 TRY A LIL HARDER|
|VALUE BETS||VALUE BET|
|Race 4, No.2 I AM EXCITED||Race 8, No.11 HIEROGLYPHICS|
|Race 8, No.8 NEW UNIVERSE|
|BLUE DIAMOND TIP||BLUE DIAMOND TIP|
|Race 7, No.3 RUN NAAN||Race 7, No.8 PLAGUE STONE|
R1 (12.45pm): TAB HIGHWAY (1100m)
Thomas: Try A Lil Harder was heavily backed at Warwick Farm and ran very well to finish a close third after drawing right off the track. She has a perfect gate here and gets her chance. There are some promising horses in opposition, including Camillo, who looked very good winning successive starts at Grafton in the spring. She Knows goes well fresh and Golden Legacy has won two starts over summer with authority.
Dufficy: She Knows has had a couple of preparations under her belt and is ready to fulfil her potential. She maps quite nicely here and will be hard to beat. I agree Camillo was very good in his two wins last time in and has to be considered. Try A Lil Harder gave her all at Warwick Farm last start and deserves another chance. Golden Legacy is a late maturer but appears to be on the rise.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Camillo $7-$5.50 ($200 @ $6.50, $200 @ $5.50), Try A Lil Harder $3.20-$3.30- $3 ($250 @ $3.30, $1,000 @ $3.20, $250 @ $3.10)
THE SELECTIONS: WEEKEND BEST BETS
RACE WATCH: DAVO’S TIPS FOR ROSEHILL
R2 (1.25pm): #SLIPPERSTYLE HCP (1500m)
Thomas: Show A Star and Cellarman have been winning all summer and look hard to beat again. Show A Star has won well at Rosehill and Warwick Farm, should get control in front and prove hard to run down. Cellarman has won five races over summer and is going as well as ever. Of the others, Pelethronius is fitter and Bring Luck will be running on well.
Dufficy: It does look a race that lacks that depth. I think Show A Star is one of better gambles of the day. All three runs have been great and he is well placed again with the claim. Cellarman is the danger with three wins from his last four starts and although he has been up a while there is no indication he is training off. Nettoyer has a lot of talent and is up to a distance that suits. Alward is a stayer resuming but he has looked sharp in recent trials.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Show A Star $2.80-$3- $2.90 ($300 @ $3), Nettoyer $23-$19
R3 (2pm): TAB SILVER SLIPPER STAKES (1100m)
Thomas: What a race. I’m with Estijaab just from Sunlight — but there is nothing between them. I was taken by Estijaab’s brilliant debut effort at Randwick then she was very impressive easily handling Gongs in a Warwick Farm trial last week. Sunlight is the big danger and deservedly so. Her Gold Coast form through to the Magic Millions was outstanding. Neutrality was super impressive on debut, has a lot of natural speed and will run well. Gongs couldn’t match it with Estijaab in the trial but will fitter.
Dufficy: A great race. Toss of the coin for me but I have to go with the Magic Millions form of Sunlight. She is very sharp, has acceleration and the form on the board. Estijaab is a filly I have a huge opinion of and her debut was very good. I thought she went even better in her trial win over Gongs and appears to have really trained on. She won’t be easy to pass. Neutrality has big wraps on him and Gongs is unbeaten in two starts. I have a slight leaning to Sunlight.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Knieval $81-$41 ($1,000 @ $51), Sunlight $2.80-$2.70- $2.80-$2.70 ($1,090 @ $2.80, $300 @ $2.80, $1,500 @ $2.70), Estijaab $3-$2.60- $2.70 ($260 @ $3, $200 @ $3, $2,500 @ $2.90, $1,800 @ $2.90, $250 @ $2.90, $250 @ $2.70 TWICE, $1,500 @ $2.60, $700 @ $2.60, $400 @ $2.60)
R4 (2.35pm): SPARK OF LIFE HCP (1100m)
Thomas: Acqume was terrific when resuming making glamour filly She Will Reign work hard to win at Warwick Farm. Acqume can improve off that run and run well at good each-way odds. Trekking is a talented three-year-old resuming. He ran competitively in a series of stakes races last spring and has trialled nicely going into this race. Pendeloque keeps winning but has to overcome an awkward draw.
Dufficy: A very interesting race. I have always had an opinion of I Am Excited. I’ve loved her recent trial at Warwick Farm, she maps well and run a big race here. I’m wary of the Godolphin duo, Trekking and Marsupial. They have both been gelded since last in work and each has trialled really well in recent weeks. At the odds, I’m happy to be with I Am Excited.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: I Am Excited $8-$8.50-$7-$7.50-$6 ($300 @ $7), Trekking $5.50-$4.80- $4.40
R5 (3.10pm): MILLIE FOX STAKES (1300m)
Thomas: There was no fluke about Prompt Response’s first-up win in the Breeders Classic. She settled on speed then forged clear for a very good win. She is probably even better suited at 1300m, is well drawn and should be hard to beat again. The only negative is her second-up record. Egyptian Symbol was forced a little wide on the turn but had her chance against Prompt Response last start and was beaten fair and square. Foxplay’s two recent trials have been concerning but she is very good mare and on her best form, she would win this race. Daysee Doom has trialled well, she always performs fresh and excels at Rosehill.
Dufficy: I agree Prompt Response is the one to beat. She is a genuine mare who invariably gets better the deeper she gets into a race campaign so her first-up win was a very encouraging sign. Daysee Doom is the danger. This mare doesn’t know how to run a bad race. I was also a little worried by Foxplay’s two trials but I don’t think you can judge her on that as she always puts in on race day. Egg Tart is in for a better preparation.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Egg Tart $5-$6, Prompt Response $3.80-$3.60, Daysee Doom $7-$6.50
R6 (3.45pm): PARRAMATTA CUP (1900m)
Thomas: I am leaning to Supply And Demand — but only just from Singing. Supply And Demand is very tough and consistent, up to his right distance now and I can envisage him tagging Singing during the race and finishing strongly. Singing will be tough to beat as he is in career-best form. Auvray wasn’t beaten far first-up and can improve while Testashadow will run his usual honest race.
Dufficy: I am a Singing fan. He has put together three strong wins now and only has to reproduced his Gosford Cup effort to prove hard to beat again. I think his stablemate Admiral Jello can run a race at massive odds. He is yet to miss a place second-up throughout his career. Imperial Aviator had had a freshen up and back to Rosehill where he has run very well. Auvray can improve dramatically second-up from a spell.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Singing $4.60-$3.10- $3-$3.10 ($450 @ $4.60, $300 @ $4.60, $235 @ $4.20, $320 @ $4, $280 @ $3.50, $1,000 @ $3.30, $250 @ $3.10)
ROSEHILL: IT’S BOOM OR BUST TIME FOR RISING STARS
SILVER SLIPPER: SUNLIGHT SET TO TURN UP THE HEAT
HOBARTVILLE: PIERATA PUSHES HICKMAN INTO SPOTLIGHT
R7 (4.25pm): HOBARTVILLE STAKES (1400m)
Thomas: An outstanding field of three-year-olds. I know how good Kementari was at Warwick Farm but Pierata was equally impressive winning the Magic Millions Guineas last start. Both have tremendous acceleration and are class acts. Pierata is good value so I am leaning his way from Kementari but there is nothing in it. Siege Of Quebec is out to double-figure odds but he is a tough colt and will enjoy getting out to 1400m. Trapeze Artist was dominant in the Expressway Stakes and his Golden Rose win over this course and trip in spring was incredible. I’ve left out D’Argento, Ace High, Brave Song, Assimilate — it is that sort of race, Ronnie.
Dufficy: A super race, one of the best of the season so far. I might just sit back, look and learn as there are some ripping three-year-olds in the field. I have to go with the acceleration of Kementari. He has a bit of a tricky draw to overcome and Glyn Schofield has a decision to make early about where he settles on the colt. If Kementari gets even luck in running, I want to be on him. Trapeze Artist was excellent in the Expressway and he was even better in the Golden Rose over this trip last spring. Pierata really came of age over the Queensland summer carnival and can run well. D’Argento might be outsprinted over 1400m but he is a good horse in the making.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Trapeze Artist $3.90-$4 ($500 @ $3.90, $200 @ $3.90 TWICE, $260 @ $3.90), Kementari $2.25-$2.30, Pierata $6.50-$7 ($200 @ $7 MULTIPLE TIMES), D’Argento $6.50-$7- $6.50 ($300 @ $7, $200 @ $6.50 TWICE)
The latest market update for the Hobartville Stakes.
TAB market update: HOBARTVILLE STAKES
R8 (5.05pm): SCHWEPPES HCP (1100m)
Thomas: Hieroglyphics chased home Fickle Folly at Warwick Farm and I think these two mares can fight out the finish again. I like Hieroglyphics, she is good each-way value and can improve off her first-up second, particularly out to her 1100m on this track where she has performed well previously. Fickle Folly is racing in career-best form and will be hard to beat again. Royal Tudor was very unlucky first-up at Randwick and looks to have come back well.
Dufficy: I think there is a bit of value here with New Universe. I like the fact Chris Waller is bringing him back in trip to 1100m as he was failing to run out 1500m in previous starts. He is very fit and has been freshened for up for the shorter trip. I also think Royal Tudor has a good chance. He was desperately unlucky first-up and will be charging home. Perizada is an underrated mare dropping 7kg on her first-up win at Canberra. Fickle Folly rates among the chances again.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: New Universe $11-$8-$7, Perizada $11-$10- $9 ($556 e/w @ $10/$3.30, $266 @ $10), Selita $15-$11
R9 (5.45pm): TRIPLE M MARQUEE HCP (1350m)
Thomas: I’m keen on Bratislava and Up ‘N’ Rolling. Bratislava is rock-hard fit, in winning form, will race on the speed making his own luck and be hard to beat again. I’ve got him on top but only just form Up ‘N’ Rolling who could win this without surprising. This distance is short of his best but he can sprint well fresh. More To Gain has more ability than his rivals and Dagny has a good first-up record.
Dufficy: I thought this was a tricky race. I want to be with More To Gain at good odds. He is resuming off a bleeding attack but I was really taken by his barrier trial and I think he is an underrated horse. Lofty’s Menu ran very well when narrowly beaten by Bratislava last start and likes his races spaced. Up ‘N’ Rolling will be strong at the end of 1350m off an eye-catching trial and Dagny usually sprints well fresh.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Up N Rolling $11-$7 ($250 @ $11, $250 @ $9, $200 @ $8.50, $300 x $100 e/w @ $7/$2.50), Denpurr $34-$18
R7 (4.05pm): BLUE DIAMOND STAKES (1200m)
Thomas: I think Plague Stone has the barrier to get the right run here. His effort to chase home Written By at Caulfield last start was super as he was never on the track and his effort to close late was tremendous. Long Leaf is a bombproof colt and Lindsay Park know how to win this race. I would have selected Written By on top if he had drawn a barrier but he does have good tactical speed and still run a huge race. Kinky Boom’s debut win was something special.
Dufficy: I want to be on one at odds here with Run Naan. He has been crying out for 1200m, he has drawn a good barrier and will peak on the day. Plague Stone is the danger as there was a lot of merit in his first-up. Oohood has had no luck in her races but is a talented filly. Unbeaten Long Leaf has to be respected.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Long Leaf $6.50-$5.50- $6.50 ($896 @ $6.50, $1,000 e/w @ $6.50/$2.60, $400 @ $6.50, $300 e/w @ $6.50/$2.60, $888 @ $6, $250 @ $6, $200 @ $6, $200 @ $5.50), Kinky Boom $8.50-$9 ($1,000 @ $8.50, $750 @ $8.50, $300 @ $8.50), Oohood $7.50-$8 ($1,000 e/w @ $7.50/$2.85, $500 @ $7.50, $300 @ $7.50, $150 x $850 e/w @ $7.50/$2.85, $406 @ $7.50, $250 e/w @ $7.50/$2.85), Qafila $26-$23
R8 (4.45pm): OAKLEIGH PLATE (1100m)
Thomas: Russian Revolution has looked brilliant in his two trials and has a great first-up record. He is drawn well in the middle of the field and has the gate speed to put himself into the right position early. He is a proven Group 1 sprinter and the one to beat. She Will Reign is a brilliant filly but she has drawn the car park here. Her best wins have come when ridden off speed so she is still a definite chance. Glenall is a good value runner and Catchy is also a top class filly.
Dufficy: I like Russian Revolution. His trials have been unbelievable, he is unbeaten first-up and is ready to get the job done here. I think Hellbent is a big improver and the best value runner in the race. Catchy is nice and fresh and with no weight on her back she can run a competitive race.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Russian Revolution $4.60-$4.80- $5 ($1,000 @ $4.80, $220 @ $4.80), Hellbent $17-$13-$14, Savanna Amour $31-$26, Bon’s Away $13 unchanged ($250 e/w @ $13/$4.10), Glenall $31-$23, She Will Reign $6-$6.50- $6 ($751 @ $6.50, $400 @ $6, $200 @ $6, $300 x $200 e/w @ $6/$2.45), Catchy $9-$9.50- $9 ($200 @ $9 TWICE)
SHAYNE O’CASS’ BEST BETS
BEST BET: BOCELLI (Race 6, No. 8)
Is first emergency in the Qualifier, should it not gain a start, you would imagine that this is a tidy consolation for a fascinating horse. Bocelli is a 4YO gelding who was foaled in Japan. He’s got a world-class pedigree and the win on debut at Canberra was indicative of one bound for better.
NEXT BEST: ZAFFIRINA (Race 8, No. 6)
Jason Coyle-trained filly has placed at two of her three runs and was fourth at the other. Looks well placed here.
VALUE: UP TRUMPZ (Race 7, No. 3)
Is up against a very, very good field — most of the chances are trained by Danny Williams. Granted a few of them like Don’t Give A Damn and Kopi Luwak are going to hard to overcome but Up Trumpz is underrated and an agreeable price.
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Recent champion Sydney apprentice RORY HUTCHINGS has the best book of rides of all jockeys headed to Goulburn. The Kiwi-born hoop is on Kopi Luwak is the CC Qualifier.
Box Trifecta — Race 7: 2,3,8,9,11
Race 5: 2,4,6, Race 6: 8, Race 7: 2,3,8,9, Race 8: 1,6
BEST BET: BELLS ‘N’ BOWS (Race 1, No. 3)
Has a record of six starts 0-0-1. Keep in mind that her other runs are made up of three fourths and two fifths so she’s always thereabouts at the right end. Was huge at Dubbo last start!
NEXT BEST: MOCK SONG (Race 2, No. 7)
Was spelled after finishing third at her only two runs of the first campaign. Won a trial at Tamworth on February 13 — she’s ready to go and has the talent.