SKY Racing form analyst Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, including betting strategies for Scone.
PLAYS OF THE DAY
|DAVO’S TOP PICKS|
|BEST EACH WAY|
|Race 1, No.9 MANDALAY BAY|
|Race 5, No.3 SASSO CORBARO|
Track: Good 4. Rail: True.
R1 (12.15pm): BENCHMARK 80 HCP (2200m)
I’m happy to stick with Mandalay Bay. I thought he was really good when ridden up on speed last start. He normally gets back but he was too keen with the blinkers on last start and he will be better for that. He finished alongside Mazaz and yet one is $3.30 and the other $10. I like the booking of Jason Collett and I think he will settle better with the blinkers off (winkers on). Drochaid raced dour last start so the step up from 1800m to 2200m should suit him. His form overseas also points to the extra distance being an advantage. Mazaz will keep battling away as he does in the straight but he looks short enough all the same. San Fransisco was too bad to be true last start and his form around Cordero last prep reads well for this. He can run a race at big odds.
BETTING STRATEGY: MANDALAY BAY each-way the gamble of the day at $10.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Mazaz $4.40-$3.30 ($320 @ $4.20, $381 @ $3.60)
TOP TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS
FRIDAY PREVIEW: SCONE, COFFS HARBOUR
AQUANITA INQUIRY: SMERDON BANNED FOR LIFE
R2 (12.50pm): BENCHMARK 80 HCP (1100m)
They’ve found a lovely race for Cradle Mountain here. He is a progressive horse and this really doesn’t look much harder than his first-up romp at Randwick where he went within .1s of the 1200m track record (albeit they were running very quick times on the day). I think you might see him ridden with a sit here if Niccobelle wants to fly along. Machinegun Jubs could be worth a bet here for the place. She has a great fresh record and first-up last prep she was actually declared a non-runner after a mishap at the gates. Her first-up run the prep prior was enormous at Warwick Farm, where she should have won. She needs to get a run and will have to lump some weight (she can also be a bit tardy from the gates at times) but $3.50-$4 seems OK to place only. Malahat will only be fitter second-up and should relish the extra 100m.
BETTING STRATEGY: CRADLE MOUNTAIN should win but he is naturally short. Can entertain MACHINEGUN JUBS a place if she gains a start and runs here.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Cradle Mountain $1.65-$1.60
R3 (1.25pm): WOODLANDS STAKES (1100m)
Tough but exciting edition of the Woodlands. There’s something about Lady Of Shalott. I know she only won at Muswellbrook on debut but she did it with ease and her late splits were the best of the day. I’ve liked the way She Will Reign’s younger sibling Rosina Kojonup has trialled and, interestingly, she went three lengths quicker than Witherspoon in separate trials on the same day coming into this. Miss Invincible will face some competition for the lead here but should give a strong kick, while there are a host of others you could make cases for as well.
BETTING STRATEGY: LADY OF SHALOTT each-way at $8, but only small, as this is very tough.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Invictus Salute $8-$7.50- $7 ($400 @ $7.50, $350 @ $7.50), Lady Of Shalott $11-$8- $7.50 ($500 @ $9), Pretty In Pink $6-$5 ($400 @ $6, $500 @ $5)
R4 (2.05pm): INGLIS 3YO GUINEAS (1400m)
Moss Trip was impressive in the James Carr last start and the pace was on to suit but she still clocked strong closing splits. She has a tricky gate to overcome but looks the horse to beat. Villermont and Dissolution are capable but back to 1400m looks a query for both of them. Frolic should appreciate the big track, while Reflectivity isn’t the worst for wider multiples.
BETTING STRATEGY: MOSS TRIP on top but the map is the concern. Can you make ground?
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Moss Trip $2.80-$2.70 ($200 @ $2.80)
R5 (2.45pm): DENISE’S JOY STAKES (1100m)
Sasso Corbaro has trialled well for this and she always goes really well fresh. Her late figures were the best of the day first-up last prep at Hawkesbury and she can sit back off a solid speed here and get the last crack at them. Demerara is the class in the race but she has the big weight to carry as well. Back to 1100m is a positive for mine off a quiet trial. Resin has been going really well at the midweeks and her recent tickover trial was super. She just needs luck in transit. In Good Time is unbeaten and who knows where the ceiling is for her. She needs to lift to a new level all the same.
BETTING STRATEGY: SASSO CORBARO to win.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Sasso Corbaro $7-$5.50 ($364 @ $6.50)
R6 (3.25pm): LUSKIN STAR STAKES (1300m)
I’ve got to stick with Osborne Bulls. His last 600m of 32.5s last start was about .4s quicker than anything else on the day at Randwick on April 21. Having said that, he has a low draw and gets back and he will need luck (it is also Rachel King’s first ride on the horse and he isn’t a straightforward horse due to his style). Firsthand put in an outstanding first-up run and his second-up record is strong. Red Excitement and Grande Rosso have both trialled well and look next best.
BETTING STRATEGY: OSBORNE BULLS to win. He clearly looks the horse to beat but the inside draw and his get-back style means he will need a bit of luck.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Invincible Gem $11-$8.50, Osborne Bulls $2.60-$2.40 ($1,000 @ $2.60, $300 @ $2.60)
R7 (4.05pm): DARK JEWEL CLASSIC (1400m)
Dyslexic had the race set up for her last start but she still ran good figures and she is on the up here. She should get a lovely run again and should present late. Ghisoni is a quality mare third-up off a long spell. She gets the blinkers on and should go close with luck from the wide draw. Siren’s Fury won well first-up and while her second-up record doesn’t read well on paper, her second-up effort last prep was super so I wouldn’t read much into her second-up stats. Slow Burn is going better than the form guide suggests and her last two starts from the back have been impressive sectionally. She has claims if she jumps well and puts herself in the first few.
BETTING STRATEGY: DYSLEXIC to win. Boxed trifecta 1,10,11,12.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Ghisoni $4.40-$4.20, Dyslexic $6.50-$4.80 ($210 @ $5.50)
R8 (4.45pm): ORTENSIA STAKES (1100m)
Tough race to finish the day. Terravista hasn’t been in a race as weak as this for some time and he just might have too much class despite the big weight and wide gate. His run in the Challenge was better than it looked and he reeled off the best last 200m split of the day at Randwick on March 10. He races best fresh and will be launching late. The wide gate might be an advantage by the last race of the two-day carnival as well (last year they got wide late on day two). To Excess has trialled nicely and he is a horse on the up. He can reel off some slick sectionals late and goes well fresh. Glenall and Spending To Win ran 1-2 in the Hawkesbury Gold Rush and should settle in the first four and give a kick with no weight on their backs.
BETTING STRATEGY: TERRAVISTA to win.
Ray Thomas and Matt Jones discuss their best bets for this weekend’s Scone Cup carnival.
MJ: This will be my first Scone carnival. What can I expect?
RT: It’s two super days of racing. The Cup meeting (Friday) is very tough but wait until you see the crowd, Matty. I swear, everyone who lives at Scone and in surrounding towns is at the track.
MJ: On the Cup, I’m going with New Tipperary based on his first-up run and Joe Pride’s confidence. It’s a pretty good race. What are your thoughts?
RT: I’m giving Sedanzer another chance. She’s got a great turn of foot and the Scone straight will suit her. Godolphin are out in numbers Friday and Saturday and I do like Savatiano in race six.
MJ: My best of the day is a Godolphin horse, but Taniko a race earlier. What about Saturday. Are you sticking with your trusty Osborne Bulls in the Luskin Star Stakes?
RT: You read my mind and I think the two best bets of the day are Osborne Bulls into Cradle Mountain.
MJ: We’ve gone the same way. Osborne Bulls should have won last start and Cradle Mountain produced one of the best midweek performances in a long time. I’m also heading toward Dyslexic in the Dark Jewel. She was great last start against Moss Trip.
RT: I like Ghisoni from Dyslexic and Shazee Lee, and I swear I haven’t copied your tips. In the Denise’s Joy Stakes, I was keen to have something on Sasso Corbaro, who will love the big track.
MJ: I was tempted to tip it but I’ve gone for the safe option and taken Demerara, who has the form behind her. I’m sticking with Moss Trip in the Guineas.
RT: I’ll have something on Reflectivity.