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Super Screener: The Lecomte Stakes sets up for this longshot



Photo: Coady Photography

Mike Shutty, author of Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener handicapping system, estimates that while the pace in Saturday’s Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte Stakes will be on par with the norm, “the pressure will be very heavy” up front. That sets up for both Shutty’s top win selection and a longshot he advises to include on your tickets.

Using Shutty’s handicapping and data-driven analysis, the Super Screener analyzes key races run each weekend throughout the year. What’s offered here is a small sample of the full product, which this week also includes picks for of a pair of Sunshine Millions races at Gulfstream Park.

As for those Lecomte contenders, two last seen in Churchill Downs’ Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) earned mentions.

Plus Que Parfait is the morning line favorite, but the morning line has him at a value-friendly 9-2. He’s the Super Screener‘s top choice, with the Point of Entry ridgling described by Shutty as a “well-managed sort that just gets better with every race.”

“Historically,” he added,” horses exiting the Kentucky Jockey Club coming from off the pace with a top finish have done extraordinarily well here. Plus Que Parfait stalks, then pounces, and he wants more ground.”

With the Lecomte field a full one before scratches, and each runner looking for his first stakes win, Shutty advises playing his Top 4 choices with an “under single” in 15-1 longshot Roiland. While the Tom Amoss trainee isn’t atop any of the Super Screener‘s suggested wagers, he appears in the second and third spots on trifecta tickets.

“This closer broke tardily in that salty edition of the Kentucky Jockey Club, and then when he started rolling, jockey Edgar Morales decided to take him inside, which was a big mistake, as he ran into a wall of horses and had nowhere to go,” Shutty said. “Roiland g
ets a similar fast and pressured pace set up here, but with a cleaner trip he projects to take a strong step forward against these.”

Roiland, who’s by Successful Appeal, beat winners on Oct. 28 at Churchill Downs leading into the his stakes debut. Before that, the colt raced under the radar at Indiana Grand.

“The day he ran at Churchill might have been one of the few times in my life that I looked at a horse that was a huge longshot on the board and thought that he should have been 6-5,” Amoss said of the 28-1 winner that day. “…He has progressed really well into his 3-year-old campaign, and I am excited about this race, recognizing that he’ll be a longshot.

 

“I know it’s going to be big field and I know that traffic is going to be an issue with a horse that comes from behind like him, but I think he has matured nicely, and I think when you look at him in the paddock, you will see a good looking, physical horse that is going to catch your eye.”

Shutty’s full-field handicapping, suggested tickets and a note on each Lecomte contender are now available — so consider getting the Super Screener advantage with your bets today.



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