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A 14-horse Breeders’ Cup Classic bringing together top runners from the East Coast, West Coast and Europe is as “truly wide open” as billed, says Mike Shutty, author of Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener handicapping system.

“If half of those runners won this race, it wouldn’t be a shock whatsoever,” Shutty said of Saturday’s race at Churchill Downs. “It is pretty evenly matched. On paper, Accelerate certainly looks the best. But here’s the challenge: The pace is going to be pretty brutal.”

So Shutty is siding against the favorite Accelerate in favor of another runner on top of his tickets. He explains in the video below why
Thunder Snow gets the nod from the
Super Screener
.



“This very lazy horse is working out really, really well,” Shutty said, with the 2018 Dubai World Cup winner having blown out a bullet four furlongs Wednesday in 47.40 seconds.

Additionally: “Just think about it: Every time this race has been run at Churchill Downs, it’s always favored a closer — sometimes bomber closers. So the race feels like it’s setting up like that.”

Generally, fractions for the Classic at Churchill Downs are run in 47 and change, 1:11 to 1:12, favoring pressing or closing types when they get to the long front stretch. Overall, a closer has won five of the six Classics under the Twin Spires.

The post time favorite has won the Classic just once here: Alysheba in 1988.

In the video, Shutty detailed a longshot he expects to see in the superfecta, plus more keys to Thunder Snow prevailing after they head postward at 5:44 p.m. ET.

Horse Racing Nation’s
Super Screener includes full-field analysis for all 14 Breeders’ Cup races with suggested wagers. Get the handicapping advantage today!



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