WE’LL overlook last season because the race was run at Haydock after Ayr was waterlogged on their big day.
An important trend is a recent run, with a month or so the cut-off date.
That spells bad news for Perfect Pasture, George Bowen, Major Jumbo, G Force, Naadirr and Goring.
A win last time out is actually a bad sign, so we can cross out Gunmetal and Baron Bolt.
At least one victory over the distance is a plus, so we can lose Justanotherbottle and Son Of Rest.
Only one of the past eight scorers had less than 9st on their back which helps cut the field down.
Upstaging, Tanasoq, Brian The Snail, Get Knotted, Tommy Taylor and Aces fall by the wayside, while Staxton has the modest record of three-year-olds to overcome.
That still leaves us with eight contenders before we concentrate on horses that finished in the first four last time as that’s been a decent pointer.
That quickly reduces them to just two — Kimberella and Growl before we knock out the former because it would be a tall order for an eight-year-old to win this.
That leaves the way open for GROWL who ticks another box in being a past winner in this class and he has the ideal official rating of 99.