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OUR experts give you an early shot at finding a winner as they look at the major races around the nation this weekend.

Last week … Two winners. Ray Thomas and Shayne O’Cass were on song with their value bet Patrick Erin, which won The Metropolitan at $17. Glenn McFarlane was on the money with Smart Melody ($2.20). Plenty of placings among the rest, but hopefully our tipsters’ luck turns this week.

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THE EARLY OIL: FLEMINGTON

STABLE WATCH: DAVO’S BEST BETS FOR RANDWICK

MONEY TRAIN: EVEREST PUNTERS FLY FLAG

ANALYSIS: TURNBULL STAKES

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SATURDAY (AEST)

DOOMBEN (9 races, start 11.45am), RANDWICK (9 races, 12.15pm), FLEMINGTON (9 races, 12.30pm), MORPHETTVILLE PARKS (9 races, 12.41pm), BELMONT (8 races, 3.24pm).

ROYAL RANDWICK

RAY THOMAS (Daily Telegraph). Form: 14214

ROYAL CELEBRATION (Race 1, No. 1 — $3.10)

Has never finished further back than second in his four starts and has been competitive against the likes of The Autumn Sun and Gem Song. He is untried in rain-affected going but he has a touch of class.

Value bet: WARRANTY (Race 9, No. 5 — $6)

MATT JONES (Daily Telegragh). Form: 11243

I AM SERIOUS (Race 8, No. 5 — $2.80)

She loves wet tracks and has the best formline going into this race after racing well against Avilius and she should be coming over the top of them late.

Value bet: TAMARACK (Race 3, No. 3 — $6.50)

media_cameraI Am Serious has good form around top Godolphin import Avilius. Picture: AAP

BRAD DAVIDSON (Sky Racing). Form: 74114

I AM SERIOUS (Race 8, No. 5 — $2.80)

She was enormous behind Avilius last start in a race dominated by the swoopers and one thing about her is she loves wet tracks.

Value bet: DOMED (Race 3, No. 4 — $13)

SHAYNE O’CASS (Sportsman). Form: 33993

I AM SERIOUS (Race 8, No. 5 — $2.80)

Is back to a mile from 2000m, where he was placed behind Avilius. The only slight worry is barrier one on a wet track. That said, re the wet, there is a lot of Lunchtime in her — and she was a mudlark!

Value bet: TCHAIKOVSKY (Race 9, No. 14 — $11)

MARKETS: TAB FIXED ODDS

FLEMINGTON

MICHAEL MANLEY (Herald Sun). Form: 1191x

AVILIUS (Race 7, No. 1 — $2.20)

He couldn’t have been more impressive winning his three starts in Sydney producing amazing closing sectionals each time.

Value bet: TULIP (Race 9, No. 6 — $13)

GLENN MCFARLANE (Herald Sun). Form: 81121

AVILIUS (Race 7, No. 1 — $2.20)

Seriously impressive Godolphin import who has won all three Australian starts. Destined for bigger things.

Value bet: INVINCIBELLA (Race 9, No. 3 — $4.80)

SIMON MOY (SuperRacing). Form: 11117

I’M WESLEY (Race 3, No. 3 — $5.50)

Should be able sit on the speed from gate and looks a great price.

Value bet: RISING RED (Race 7, No. 6 — $12)

media_cameraAvilius will be chasing his fourth successive win when he lines up in The Bart Cummings. Picture: Getty Images

CHRIS VERNUCCIO (SuperRacing). Form: 13116

SAVOIE (Race 4, No. 5 — $3)

His two wins have been dominant, including a soft Derby trial win by four lengths. Should roll forward again from the wide barrier and there doesn’t look to be much pressure. Will be hard to run down.

Value bet: KRONE (Race 8, No. 2 — $5)

DARREN PRENDERGAST (Superracing). Form: 73233

AVILIUS (Race 7, No. 1 — $2.20)

Godolphin import is unbeaten since arriving Down Under. Has an impressive turn of foot and will love the big straight at Flemington

Value bet: BRING ME ROSES (Race 9, No. 4 — $19)

NICK QUINN (TAB). Form: 74s24

AVILIUS (Race 7, No. 1 — $2.20)

Looked unbeatable in the Metropolitan and connections bypassed that race in preference for this. Unbeaten this campaign and should win again, if you want to back him for the Caulfield or Melbourne Cup do so prior to this race.

Value bet: TULIP (Race 9, No. 6 — $13)

MARKETS: TAB FIXED ODDS

DOOMBEN

NATHAN EXELBY (The Courier-Mail). Form: 2113x

FIERY HEIGHTS (Race 5, No. 2 — $2.30)

Looks set to control this race from the front and is sure to give a big kick. No dramas if the rain arrives.

Value bet: CLOCKWISE (Race 7, No. 3 — $14)

MARKETS: TAB FIXED ODDS

MORPHETTVILLE PARKS

LINCOLN MOORE (The Advertiser). Form: 2515x

MONTASER (Race 7, No. 5 — $2.50)

Lightly-raced but showed plenty in Melbourne earlier in the year. Sandown winner two starts back before running a $2.05 favourite at Moonee Valley. Stable place their horses extremely well and he looks the testing material.

Value bet: DIAPASON (Race 9, No. 13 — $7)

MARKETS: TAB FIXED ODDS

*Note: TAB Fixed Odds prices correct at time of publishing.

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