How to crush the Belmont Stakes 2018 Superfecta

Over the past 10 years, the Belmont Stakes has produced both some chalky results and some very big Superfectas, with the Superfecta payout averaging more than $10,000 during the last decade.

     [Triple Crown 1-2-3-4 finishers and payouts since 2000]

As Justify enters the June 9 race as an odds-on favorite seeking a Triple Crown, it’s obvious that he holds the key to the Belmont Stakes payouts.  

If Justify wins, the payouts will be lower. However, the last three times a Triple Crown-bidding horse lost (California Chrome in 2014, Big Brown in 2008 and Smarty Jones in 2004), the $1 exotic payouts averaged $191 for the Exacta, $2,012 for the Trifecta and $11,963 for the Superfecta.

First, let’s take a look at the past 10 Belmont Stakes races and payouts.

Belmont Stakes Historical Payouts ($1)

Top 4 Finishers Field Exacta Trifecta Superfecta
2017 Tapwrit, 5-1
Irish War Cry, 5-2
Patch, 12-1
Gormley, 9-1
11 $22 $312 $2,243
2016 Creator, 16-1
Destin, 8-1
Lani, 12-1
Governor Malibu, 17-1
13 $134 $1,375 $13,967
2015 American Pharoah, 3-5
Frosted, 4-1
Keen Ice, 17-1
Mubtaahij, 14-1
8 $6 $54 $285
2014 Tonalist, 9-1
Commissioner, 28-1
Medal Count, 24-1
California Chrome, 4-5
11 $174 $3,390 $5,733
2013 Palace Malice, 13-1
Oxbow, 10-1
Orb, 2-1
Incognito, 18-1
14 $161 $465 $10,301
2012 Union Rags, 5-2
Paynter, 4-1
Atigun, 20-1
Street Life, 9-1
11 $15 $248 $953
2011 Ruler On Ice, 24-1
Stay Thirsty, 16-1
Brilliant Speed, 10-1
Nehro, 9-2
12 $464 $4,134 $37,026
2010 Drosselmeyer, 13-1
Fly Down, 5-1
First Dude, 5-1
Game On Dude, 17-1
12 $72 $383 $5,329
2009 Summer Bird, 11-1
Dunkirk, 9-2
Mine That Bird, 6-5
Charitable Man, 9-2
10 $60 $147 $426
2008 Da’ Tara, 38-1
Denis of Cork, 7-1
Anak Nakal, 34-1
Ready’s Echo, 28-1
9 $329 $1,851 $24,318
Averages 11.1 $144 $1,236 $10,058

Belmont Superfecta Key Insights

Using research from Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener handicapping system, we have uncovered some key trends when it comes to the Belmont Stakes Superfecta. 

Many horseplayers have assumed that when it comes to the Belmont Stakes, the 1 1/2-mile distance favors closers. Well, that’s halfway correct. If you’re talking about third and fourth place, both mid-pack and, to some degree, deep closers do dominate the bottom of Trifectas and Superfectas. But, that is not the case with the win and place spot, particularly in recent years as closers have only accounted for 35% (5 of 14) of the Exacta spots in the last seven years.

While doing our analysis to create the screening criteria for the Belmont, we came upon some interesting insights centered on the role of “running styles” and their impact on the outcome of the top four Belmont finishers.

Below is a chart we compiled that shows the top four finishers of the past 10 editions of the Belmont Stakes, their odds and their Energy Distribution Profile. In addition, we captured the quarter mile and six-furlong fractional times of each race.

Belmont Stakes 2018

Summary of Insights

• Of the 40 possible finish opportunities, closers/deep closers accounted for 25 of them, or 63%, which is similar to what you’ll find for the Kentucky Derby over the same 10-year period. 

• 70% of the time, closers took up both the third and fourth-place slots of the Superfecta. Closers represented 80% of the 3rd and 4th spots (16 of 20).

• At least 2 closers/deep closers hit the Superfecta in 9 of the past 10 editions, with only 2014 being the exception. But if you go back to the past 18 years, 
17 of 18 times two closers or deep closers hit the Superfecta.

• Only two pace types have won the Belmont Stakes in the past 18 years. Triple Crown winner American Pharoah did it in 2015 and the Nick Zito-trained Da’ Tara wired the 2008 Belmont when Triple Crown bidder Big Brown pulled up.

• In the past 7 years, there has always been a presser or pace type in the Exacta. These have included some nice prices such as Palace Malice (13-1), Oxbow (10-1), Tonalist (9-1), Commissioner (28-1) and Destin (8-1).

• 2nd place is where wire types go to fade, and that has been the case in 5 of the last 10 runnings.

• Unlike the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes, the pace in the Belmont Stakes has little bearing on which “running style” will be favored.

Key 2018 Belmont Stakes Takeaways

• This year’s Superfecta is likely to be dominated by horses that are running back from the Kentucky Derby, as 6 of the 10 horses entered in the Belmont stakes ran in the Derby.

• A Triple Crown is on the line, and Justify will face 9 other rivals including 5 horses that ran in the Derby. The
Super Screener has revealed the two horses with the best shot to upset Justify’s pursuit.

• There will likely be up to 5 horses that will go off at 20-1-plus. So, which one of those bombers has the best shot to hit the Superfecta? Our selection is not who you would think!

If you’re aiming for a big score on the Belmont, consider that the Super Screener will do the heavy lifting for you, plus provide full-field analysis for other Grade 1 races on the June 9 card at Belmont Park.

The 2018 Belmont Super Screener also includes:

• Horse-by-horse analysis.

• Who to use and who to toss.

• Live longshots you can’t leave off tickets.

• Wagering strategy with Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta tickets.

Get your copy today
 and get on your way to a big score!


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