THE Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy analyse the nine-race Royal Randwick program and the Tatt’s Tiara at Doomben on Saturday.
|DUFF’S BEST||RAY’S BEST|
|Race 9, No.1 BANDIPUR||Race 6, No.6 SAVVAN|
|NEXT BEST||NEXT BEST|
|Race 6, No.6 SAVVAN||Race 9, No.2 SHE KNOWS|
R1 (11.25am): LIVING TURF HCP (1200m)
Thomas: King’s Trust was impressive winning at the holiday meeting on the Kensington track earlier this month. I liked the way he attacked the line after striking trouble at the top of the straight. He will be strong late and I think he can get the job done again. The danger is Dio D’Oro who sailed through the heavy conditions to win first-up over 1000m and he can only improve off that win. Silent Explorer tried hard when second over 1400m at Rosehill last week. He is on the quick back-up and has to cope with the shorter trip but that tough run will stand him in good stead for this race. Rio De Janeiro has done well in his only two starts against older horses and is back to his own age here.
Dufficy: I am going with Dio D’Oro. He looked very strong winning first-up in similar track conditions. He is up to 1200m but the way he won last start suggests it won’t pose any problems. King’s Trust is the hardest to beat. He appears a real improver, is in the right yard with Team Snowden, and is coming off a strong last-start win. Silent Explorer toughed it out very well last week and although back to 1200m is not ideal, on this heavy track it might actually work in his favour. Marmaris has solid form from his debut preparation and his two trials recently have been quite good.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Dio D’Oro $4.60-$4.40-$4.20 ($200 @ $4.60, $900 @ $4.40, $600 @ $4.40, $200 @ $4.40), Marmaris $5-$4.40
RACE WATCH: DAVO’S TIPS FOR RANDWICK
TOP TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS
R2 (12pm): DAD & DAVES TURF HCP (1200m)
Thomas: Lisdoonvarna is a nice filly with five wins from just eight starts. We haven’t seen her for nearly a month since she defeated Seaway and Gaulois which has turned out to be very strong form. She strikes a rain-affected track here which will suit her and I rate her as very hard to beat. Revenire wasn’t beaten far behind Brook Magic last start and he is right in the mix again. Easy Eddie enjoyed the soft track to win with real authority last start and he will be up on the speed, making his own luck and could easily take this out. Pierina has been impressive wining both her starts in easier grade since resuming and is an emerging filly.
Dufficy: I’m with Lisdoonvarna as well. I’m a little concerned with five weeks between runs and a recent little setback but I really do like this filly. She was brilliant at her only run on a heavy track and she is developing a very good race record. Smartedge is the value runner. His only soft-track run was a close second to D’Argento in a maiden so he is ready to win fourth-up. Easy Eddie has only been on a soft 5 but he was very good winning on the “Kenso” last start. He is going great and has to be included. Revenire had a month between runs before his recent third, so with the quicker back-up here he gets a big tick.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Smartedge $7.50-$8-$7 ($1,000 @ $8, $750 @ $8, $500 @ $8), Lisdoonvarna $5.50-$5 ($2,000 @ $5.50 TWICE, $2,000 @ $5), Pierina $12-$9 ($200 @ $12, $500 @ $10, $200 @ $10)
R3 (12.35pm): EVERGREEN TURF HCP (2400m)
Thomas: These stayers have been matching motors of late with a different winner almost every time. I do like the chances of Plymouth Road. He has been racing well of late, he’s working up to win and was just edged out after leading for a long at Warwick Farm last start. He will enjoy the heavy track and 2400m so I expect him to go close. Follow Suit has put two very good runs back-to-back and is looking for this trip now. Solo Mission is another suited by finally getting out to 2400m. Only Tiger is an improving stayer who is very effective on heavy tracks.
Dufficy: Solo Mission was pretty good with the blinkers on last start. He will strike a similar track here and I think that set him up pretty well. Only Tiger is rock-hard fit, very tough and loves it wet. He is in a winning frame of mind and has to go in. I agree Plymouth Road has a chance. He has had a long run of outs but is last two runs have been good. Best of the rest is Follow Suit who is fourth-up and peaking now.
R4 (1.10pm): SOUTHERN CROSS TURF HIGHWAY (1200m)
Thomas: Tim’s Principal has been good in all three runs this preparation, including his Gosford win two starts back. He is untried on the heavy but he is a half brother to Avoid Lightning and she was a brilliant mudlark. With good speed on, he will most likely settle midfield and will be finishing strongly. I’ve got him on top from Nicconita, who is in great form, and is a deserved favourite. My Blue Jeans has struck form winning his last two starts in good style but he needs to cope with the drop in distance from 1500m last week. Go The Gantry should be peaking now.
Dufficy: A very tricky TAB Highway but I’m with Nicconita. She has put two very impressive wins together and I like the way she really savaged the line in both. I did expect a little more from Go The Gantry last start but dropping 3kg and getting out to 1200m will suit him better. It is not going to be easy for My Blue Jeans coming back from 1500m to 1200m in seven days but he does look an improving horse. Two ‘N’ Wellgo won’t be far away.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: My Blue Jeans $6.50-$7.50-$6 ($500 @ $7.50), Tim’s Principal $8.50-$5.50
R5 (1.45pm): ELITE SAND & SOIL MILE (1600m)
Thomas: With the scratching of Seaway it opens the door for Special Missile. He has been racing well without winning, losing by small margins. He handles wet tracks, gets in well at the weights, and should control the tempo upfront. Sons Of John is fitter for recent racing and getting out to his preferred distance range. Mighty Lucky will improve after two runs form a spell and Dark Eyes wasn’t beaten wen resuming at Rosehill last week and he does have a good second-up record. Ronnie, surely this is Special Missile’s day?
Dufficy: Yes, it has to be, Ray. Special Missile is left with a soft lead, he has won at 1550m so I am comfortable to be with him. He will look the winner for most of the straight and I think he can hold on. Mighty Lucky is a tough, old horse and I think there is still some life in him. Beijing Board got caught off the track first-up and the extra distance suits. Karavali can improve on recent runs and she does have some wet track form.
R6 (2.25pm): SCG TRUST HCP (1400m)
Thomas: I am really keen on Savvan. She has done well in two runs back, is suited at 1400m on heavy where she has been placed in four out of five starts on heavy tracks. Savvan has been beaten by smart mares Savatiano and Noire in her recent starts so this is her chance. Unbeaten Alassio is stepping up from 1100m to 1400m and is being tested on a heavy track for the first time but she is promising. Reiby Rampart always goes around at generous odds and she goes into this race after a very good second to Fierce Impact which is good form. Princess Posh won well last start and has to be considered a big chance again.
Dufficy: I also like Savvan. I know she has a relatively poor strike-rate but her form is very likeable and she is ready to win third-up at 1400m. Star Reflection is the danger. Her recent form is consistent without winning and she handles soft going. Medaille is not without a chance as she is very fit now. Princess Posh was good winning at Rosehill last start and the form has been franked with the runner-up Magic Alibi coming out of that race to win a Listed event at Ipswich.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Savvan $7.50-$5.50-$5 ($400 @ $6.50 TWICE, $291 @ $5.50, $200 @ $5.50), Filomenas Grace $12-$8.50 ($2,000 @ $9.50, $360 @ $8.50)
R7 (3.05pm): ELITE HAULAGE HCP (1200m)
Thomas: I know I Thought So has five lengths to make up on Jungle Edge on their clash here two weeks ago but I am leaning his way here. I Thought So just got too far out of his ground over the Randwick 1100m last start and he ran on well for third. He is fitter now, likes soft tracks and has drawn the ideal gate. He is value at $5. Faraway Town had been trained up for the Tiara but missed a run there when made second emergency. Her trials have been dynamic and it would not surprise if she won. Shiraz loves heavy tracks and his June Stakes effort behind Jungle Edge indicated he is close to a win. Jungle Edge could run them ragged again as he is so effective on wet tracks.
Dufficy: I know he hasn’t won in a while but I am giving Shiraz another chance here. He was a bit unlucky when second in the June Stakes but his effort that day shows he needs wet tracks. Jungle Edge is the danger as we know he is good on rain-affected tracks but I just feel fresh might be best for him so he may not be as lethal here. I Thought So has a chance as well but he has been a long time out of the winner’s circle. Faraway Town was set for the Tiara and is ready to go.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: I Thought So $6-$4.80-$5 ($2,000 @ $5)
R8 (3.45pm): HI QUALITY TURF HCP (1400m)
Thomas: The Avenger is on the quick back up here after a sound fifth behind Manolo Blahniq last week. Chris Waller horses on the quick back-up invariably race well and The Avenger is drawn to get the run of the race. Francesco’s trials have only been so-so but he usually races well fresh and is very good on wet tracks. Tenorino wasn’t beaten far behind The Avenger at Canterbury last start and he has an each-way chance. High Mist won well last start and although he is staying at 1400m, he rates highly.
Dufficy: I’ve got similar thoughts to you. I love being on horses racing on wet tracks on the quick back-up which is the case with The Avenger. I know he is untried on the heavy but he has no convictions at the same time. There are good reports about his young rider and The Avenger gets in well after the claim. The danger is Travancore. He was very heavily backed first-up behind Noire and this is an easier race. I’m watching the market with Hypnotist. He was only common in a recent trial but is two from two fresh and is also unbeaten in two attempts on soft going. High Mist has a mind of his own but he is last start winner and handles these track conditions.
R9 (4.25pm): TURF DRAIN AUSTRALIA SPRINT (1000m)
Thomas: This is between She Knows and Bandipur. I am leaning to She Knows who is a very genuine mare, rock-hard fit, racing in great form and gets in well with the claim, Bandipur will be hard to beat. He was competitive at stakes level last preparation, he’s by Commands so he should handle heavy conditions, and his recent barrier trial efforts have been impressive. Of the others, Rebel Miss didn’t have much luck last start and is a 1000m specialist, while Fanning can sprint well fresh off two good trials.
Dufficy: It can be dangerous tipping a horse first-up on a heavy track but I do like Bandipur. He has looked good in his two barrier trials and although he has drawn wide, it might be the right place to be late in the day. We know he loves the going so I’m keen to be with him. I have also liked All Carisma’s recent trials and the Gerald Ryan stable is flying. She Knows is very fit, racing well and coming back to 1000m is no issue for her. The best of the rest is Don’t Tease Me who did win a recent barrier trial by more than 12 lengths.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Bandipur $4.60-$4.20 ($250 @ $4.40), She Knows $4.60-$5
R8 (3.58pm): SKY RACING TATT’S TIARA (1350m)
Thomas: Champagne Cuddles gets the perfect run from her good draw. She will race on the speed, giving herself every chance and prove hard to run down. She is racing well at Group 1 level and this is her chance to win a major. There are plenty of dangers including Siren’s Fury. She won the Dark Jewel Classic then had no luck in the Dane Ripper Stakes last start. She has drawn gate two here, will settle closer and prove very competitive at big odds. Prompt Response was very good in the Dane Ripper and will be hard to beat. Moss Trip has drawn the extreme outside barrier and will be ridden for luck but she does have a powerful finish.
Dufficy: I’m with the two fillies, Moss Trip and Champagne Cuddles. I know Moss Trip has a big job in front of her from the horrible draw but I do think the market is overplaying her wide barrier and she is ridiculous odds at $10. She was just too fresh with a month between runs last start and with a back to follow she will be hard to hold out. Champagne Cuddles is the big danger as she maps beautifully and was very good in the Stradbroke. This is the race of the carnival with so many chances including Prompt Response. I didn’t think she looked quite right the other day so to see her run so well is an indication she will be hard to beat. Savanna Amour is an underrated mare drawn the rails and will be very competitive.
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Prompt Response $6.50-$7 ($310 x $290 e/w @ $6.5/$2.60, $250 x $350 e/w @ $6.50/$2.60), Shillelagh $11-$13-$10-$9.50, Missrock $21-$19 ($500 x $100 e/w @ $21/$6, $200 x $50 e/w @ $21/$6), Invincible Gem $17-$11, Savanna Amour $9-$8.50-$9.50 ($600 @ $9, $500 @ $9, $300 @ $9), Siren’s Fury $21-$18-$23-$19-$17, Champagne Cuddles $5.50-$5-$6-$5.50 ($650 @ $5, $250 x $100 e/w @ $6/$2.50)
TAB BETTING SUMMARY
BIGGEST POTENTIAL COLLECTS ON TATT’S TIARA
$300 at $101 on Faraway Town to win, $700 at $26 to place for $48,500
$1,500 at $15 on Pedrena to win, $500 at $4.50 to place for $24,750
$1,000 at $15 on Miss Wilson to win for $15,000
$1,000 at $13 on Shillelagh to win for $13,000
$400 at $26 on Pedrena to win, $100 at $7.25 to place for $11,125
$500 at $21 on Missrock to win, $100 at $6 to place for $11,100
$390 at $26 on Pedrena to win for $10,140
BEST BACKED FOR THE WIN (single bets since Wednesday)
1. Savanna Amour ($9.50) — 16%
2. Siren’s Fury ($17) — 13%
3. Champagne Cuddles ($5.50) — 11%
4. Prompt Response ($7) — 9%
5. Shillelagh ($9.50) — 9%
BEST BACKED FOR THE PLACE (single bets since Wednesday)
1. Invincibella ($4.60) — 16%
2. Savanna Amour ($3.30) — 12%
3. Siren’s Fury ($5) — 11%
4. Champagne Cuddles ($2.30) — 11%
5. Super Cash ($3.50) — 8%
SHAYNE O’CASS’S BEST BETS
BEST BET: SOMETHING FAST (Race 3, No. 3)
Is a first-starter from the Anthony and Edward Cummings stable by Smart Missile. This 3YO has looked the part in his two trials and has a future beyond the provincials.
NEXT BEST: LADY I AM (Race 8, No. 13)
Is having her first run for the Snowden camp having done all her previous racing with Tim Martin. The trials have been super impressive. Was set to resume in town on Wednesday but drew a bad gate.
VALUE: GAYATRI (Race 4, No. 6)
Is a Chris Waller filly on debut after a couple of really nice trials. She’s by Pierro, the third dam is Tycoon Lil, so she is a ‘classic’ filly but definitely one with talent.
JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
DEANNE PANYA has three rides, two of them — Puppet Master and All Ours (who trialled very well) can win their respective races which would give her a shot at the TAB Jockey’s Challenge at decent odds.
BEST BET: KEEPER GIRL (Race 4, No. 5)
Had her first 11 starts in NZ, placing at four of them, before relocating to the Luke Pepper stable in Canberra. She has had two outings under Pepper’s care, the last one — a fourth at Narrandera, was outstanding. Should win this.
NEXT BEST: ALL TIME MISCHIEF (Race 2, No. 3)
The son of Buriton is ultra consistent and ready to peak now third run into the campaign.
BEST BET: NOT A PRINCESS (Race 1, No. 5)
Sue Grills-trained mare with a handy record. She is building up to a win and Grills has found the right race for the mare, who goes around with 51kg.